Dangerous Flops in Poker
Top pair with a marginal kicker, second or third pair, or any otherwise good flop with a threatening board are all dangerous flops. With these you must consider releasing your hand if you think you are beaten.
Top pair with a marginal kicker is always a troublesome hand. This is a problem if your top pair is an ace, since many hold’em players routinely play any ace they’re dealt — regardless of the kicker.
If you’re holding A-9 and the flop is A-7-3 you have flopped top pair, but are you happy with it? If your opponent holds A-J only three cards in the deck win the pot for you. You’re drawing at a longshot, and unless that miracle card turns, you’re going to pay the price.
Let’s have a look at this example.
Your hand: A -9
Your opponent’s hand: A -J
The board: A -7 -3
Both you and your opponent hold top pair, however you need to catch a 9 in order to win the pot from this point.
With second or third pair, your problem is determining whether any of your opponents hold a larger pair. If, for example, there is a bet and a raise before it is your turn to act, your choice is simple. Throw your hand away.
Here’s another example. Suppose you hold 8-7. The flop is 10-7-3 and your lone opponent comes out betting. What should you do? Do you give him credit for a pair of tens, or is he trying to steal the pot with a hand like Q-J? If your opponent holds a pair of tens, or any overpair, you are a longshot — needing one of the two remaining 7s, or three of the remaining 8s to win.
Example:
You hold 7 -8 .
Your opponent holds Q -J
the board 10 -7 -3
You now have second pair, and your opponent has two over-cards.
Making the right play in this situation is a lot easier if you know your opponents! Are they tight players who never bet it unless they’ve got a real hand? Most players are not found at either of those extremes, but somewhere in between.
When you’re unsure, examine the quality of the flop for clues. Most of your opponents will play big cards far more frequently than small ones. If the flop contains two or more face cards and there’s a bet, chances are someone holds a large pair. It’s also probably bigger than yours. When the flop is ragged, there is less chance one of your opponents has paired the board. However, if you are in a hand with four- or five-way action before the flop, it really makes no difference what the board looks like. When you’re up against a lot of opponents, the flop will probably hit one of them. Now it’s fit or fold. If the flop doesn’t provide sound reasons for continuing with your hand, toss it.
You’ll occasionally flop what would ordinarily be a very good hand but is dangerous because of the board’s makeup. Let’s say you called with A-Q in middle position, two players to your left called, and the button raised. Only blinds dropped out. Everyone else called the raise. Now the flop is Q-J-J.
Do you like this hand? You’ve flopped two pair with the best possible kicker, but you’re up against three opponents. One raised, and the others were strong enough to call him. This suggests they are playing big cards. Is one of these big cards a Jack, or do any of your opponents hold big pairs — Aces, Kings or Queens? This is not an easy decision to make? What could they have raised or called with? A-K or K-Q — or even smaller pairs, like tens or nines, are logical possibilities. If they hold these hands you’re in luck. But you’re out of luck if one of your opponents called with a J-10, Q-J, K-J, A-J, J-J, Q-Q, K-K or A-A.
The best strategy might be to check, since betting will not drive out anyone holding a bigger hand than yours, and there are not many free cards that can beat you.
Another dangerous flop is top pair or top two pair, when the board is three-suited or sequenced. You might be up against a made straight or flush. Still, if you’re going to play at all, you’re better off betting to make it expensive for players on a straight or flush draw to complete their hand.
There is no sure fire way to tell whether anyone else has made a big hand. You’ll get a clue by examining the board and knowing your opponents, but you’ll seldom be certain. If you are uncertain, you might want to check and call, to see where the strength is. This kind of situation takes a good deal of experience and judgment to play.
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